Putin's
Best Bet: Creating an 'Alawite Israel' (Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland)
"Fiodor Lukyanov , chairman of the
Kremlin's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, doesn't expect Syria to ever
function within its current, formal borders like a country again. According to
him, Russia should strive to create an 'Alawite
Israel,' a state that is unified ethnically and religiously and which would be
able to defend itself against its neighbors with the help of Russian troops
stationed on its territory."
By Wacław Radziwinowicz
Translated By Halszka Czarnocka
October 28, 2015
Poland -
Gazeta Wyborcza - Original Article (Polish)
Since the Russian Air Force began bombing Syria,
three weeks have passed, and we now have its first stunning effect: Putin's
popularity among his countrymen, which seemed not long ago like it couldn't go
higher, has risen again. The All-Union
Center for the Study of Public Opinion just announced that public support
for the president has again reached another peak: 89.9 percent – a historic
record.
This is extremely worrisome. Because while the man
in the Kremlin's popularity during his 16 years in power has always been good,
it's looks like a sine wave, and nothing boosts it as quickly as the next war.
In 2008, the war with Georgia gave him 88 percent support; in 2014, during the
annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Ukraine, his numbers rose to 86
percent.
VIDEO
What we are witnessing is not new, but rather a
very bad tradition. Already in 1904, Russian Interior Minister Vyacheslav Plehve rejoiced at the
prospect of an impending conflict with Japan. He assured everyone that what the
Empire needed was "a little victorious war," since only a wave of
patriotic enthusiasm could save the country from a revolution. The war turned
out not so little, and the nightmare of revolution that engulfed the great
power a year later ended not long thereafter in final catastrophe for the state
of the czars.
Winning a "little victorious war" is
again a beguiling prospect. Parliamentary elections are due within a year and
in 2018 the presidential poll. The ruling camp is carrying some nasty baggage.
The Russian economy has shrunk by nearly 4 percent; inflation is already at 15
percent and real wages fell this year by 10 percent. Prospects are bleak.
According to experts in Washington, Russia has lost over $100 billion to lower
oil prices in the last six months – an amount equal to nearly half the
country's next annual budget.
So the appetite among the ruling class for a
"little victorious war" to guarantee public support will only get
stronger.
For the moment, the Russians are just such a war.
In their window on the world - which is Kremlin-controlled TV, Russian pilots
are not so much battling the Islamists but rather the Americans - whom they
have totally surpassed. Where those clumsy U.S. pilots missed, the Russians are
right on target, day after day destroying military command posts, arsenals and
bunkers. In short, they come out on top, which sills the hearts of the nation
with pride, allowing people to forget those crisis-ravaged portfolios.
With this triumphant narrative as a backdrop,
Putin's speech on Thursday at the annual Valdai Discussion Club in Krasnaya Polyana sounded oddly
modest. The president rated the achievements of his Air Force in Syria as
"modest" as yet, but promising "more to come."
In Moscow's eyes, the achievement of success in
this conflict would require first of all that countries in the region and the
West acknowledge Russia's military achievements by conceding to Russia a
central role in the anti-terror coalition.
Such hopes would appear in vain. Putin tried
sending Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to "coalition" talks in the
United States. Medvedev was good bait, since the former Russian president is
viewed far more sympathetically than the current one. The White House rejected
the offer, however – and in diplomatic terms would be considered brusque.
Moscow experts like Georgiy
Mirsky , a specialist on the Near East at the Russian
Academy of Sciences, believes that it will be a major success for Putin if he
can "prevent Russia from being sucked too deeply" into the war. It
won't be easy.
According to Kommersant Maksim Yusin , this is precisely
the intention of Bashar al-Assad, who wants to take advantage of Russian troops
to regain control over the rest of the country.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
This dream isn't only that of the president of
Syria. At the Valdai Club meeting, Iran Parliament speaker Ali Larijani was particularly active (video below). He even
managed to interject into questions addressed to Putin. The Iranian was
downright emotional when he protested suggestions that Syria be divided into
several states, explaining that they would end of constantly in conflict with
one another. It's obvious that Tehran, too, wants to see the Russian army
restore order to its neighbor country.
VIDEO
Leonid Asayev , Arabist of the prestigious Higher School of Economics,
argues that Moscow, in order to avoid "plunging into the quagmire of
war," should aspire to a much more modest task: safeguarding control of
its client Assad over the region inhabited by his co-religionists - the
Alawites. This constitutes only a small part of the country, which is fact has
already disintegrated. In this area lies Tartus ,
where the Russians are rapidly expanding their naval base, and Latakia , where Russian aircraft are stationed.
Fiodor Lukyanov , chairman of the Kremlin's Council on Foreign and
Defense Policy, likewise doesn't expect Syria to ever function within its
current, formal borders like a country again. According to him, Russia should
strive to create an "Alawite Israel," a
state that is unified ethnically and religiously and which would be able to
defend itself against its neighbors with the help of Russian troops stationed
on its territory. Lukyanov argues that this would be
in the interests of both the great powers and states in the Middle East, as it
would help stabilize the situation in the region.
Lukyanov himself,
however, is doubtful that Moscow's partners would be willing to accept his
argument. It is understood that the world would see such an idea as a
manifestation of Russian expansion.
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Reaction to Developments in Ukraine Moskovskii Komsomolets,
Russia: Report: U.S. to
Help 'Oust' Black Sea Fleet from Crimea Novosti, Russia: Looking Toward the West,
Ukraine 'Lies' to the East Yezhednevniy Zhurnal,
Russia: Ossified Kremlin
Misreads Biden Visit to Georgia, Ukraine Rceczpospolita, Poland: Banish All 'Magical
Thinking' Regarding the Russian Bear Kommersant, Russia: The Kremlin Offers 'an
Ultimatum' to America Gazeta Wyborcza,
Poland: 'Enormous
Error' of Bush's 'Georgian Protege' Georgia Can 'Kiss NATO
Goodbye' Financial Times Deutschland, Germany: Before
Georgia - It is Europe that Needs Mediation Rue 89, France: East Europe Best Not Depend on
'Obsolete' NATO Liberation, France: Russian President 'Dictates
His Peace' to Hapless Europe Le Figaro, France: Between America and Russia,
the E.U. is On the Front Line Le Figaro, France: War in the Caucasus: Georgia
'Doesn? Stand a Chance' Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia
Crisis for Russia and the West Le Figaro, France: Did Russia 'Win' the Georgia
Crisis? Not By a Long Shot Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Did Russia 'Win'
the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot
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Posted By Worldmeets.US
October 28, 2014, 4:59am
