http://worldmeets.us/images/putin-back-in-ussr_inyt.jpg

International New York Times

[Click Here for INYT Opinion Page]

 

 

Patience: Russia Sanctions will Take Time to Bite (Polityka, Poland)

 

"Russians are today 'drunk' over their 'recovery' of Crimea. They applaud Putin and don't think twice about relations with the West. In the long, though, Russia cannot live in the atmosphere of a besieged fortress and with its global reputation in tatters. For its modernization and development, it is Russia who needs Europe and America - not the other way round. In Russia, where Putin has strong support today, forces will emerge which understand that."

 

By Marek Ostrowski

http://worldmeets.us/images/Marek-Ostrowski_mug.jpg

 

Translated By Halszka Czarnocka

 

August 21, 2014

 

Poland - Polityka - Original Article (Polish)

New sanctions on Russia, imposed by the United States and the European Union, are undoubtedly the harshest Western move against Moscow since the end of the Cold War. Among the companies affected are three banks, which will have serious problems gaining access to Western capital, as well as - potentially - companies in the oil and armaments sectors, which will have to cut back on their investment plans.

 

Experts tracking the Russian market argue that since the beginning of the year, sanctions have already led to an almost 8 percent decline in the value of the ruble. Moreover, the Central Bank of Russia had to spend almost $30 billion in order to soften the fall. Finally, the International Money Fund calculates the capital flight from Russia at almost $100 billion in the current year.

 

Yet so far, there has been no visible change in Vladimir Putin's policies toward Ukraine. Observing events with a cool eye, one could argue that the tragic shooting down of the Malaysian Boeing 777 could have been used by the Kremlin to lower tensions. Putin could have explained that innocents died as a result of a monstrous error, that the separatists had gone too far, so Russia could not support them any longer. The Russian president, however, has become a prisoner of his own rhetoric. Having immediately blamed the shooting on the Kiev authorities, it is difficult for him to change his position now.

 

Sanctions aren't bringing quick results for three reasons. First, Russia's participation in the global economy is quite small. Supposedly an empire, Russia accounts for only 3 percent of global GDP.

 

Second, the energy sector - which has more links to the global economy is situated largely beyond the reach of sanctions. In this area, it is much more difficult to cut Russia off, because Europe not only needs Russian raw materials, but it plays an important role in their extraction and transport. For instance, two Western giants, BP and Exxon Mobile, are partners with Rosneft; while German, Dutch and British companies have sunk considerable resources into the construction of the Nord Stream Pipeline. To disregard such investments is, simply put, unthinkable.

 

Third, the history of sanctions employed against other countries, for instance, apartheid South Africa, or Iran for its nuclear program, show that years are required to see results. Meanwhile, politicians and Western public opinion, not to speak of Ukraine itself, need to spur more rapid effects.

 

Yet pessimism isn't entirely justified. Experts point out that while Putin is surrounded by oligarchs who earn most of their money on the domestic market, there are others whose businesses and personal lives are more closely tied to the West. The interests of these two groups diverge, and discord can occur between them.

 

Most importantly, Putin and his Russia have already lost the propaganda and image war to the West. Public opinion surveys in Germany testify to this. Only three months ago, Germans were cautiously-disposed to sanctions, while now, according to the polls, a majority support them, even if they cause harm to the German economy.

 

Russians are today "drunk" over their "recovery" of Crimea. They applaud Putin and don't think twice about relations with the West. "No? - well fine, then!" they seem to be saying. In the long run, though, Russia cannot live in the atmosphere of a besieged fortress and with its global reputation in tatters. For its modernization and development, it is Russia who needs Europe and America - not the other way round. In Russia, where Putin has strong support today, forces will emerge which understand that.

 

SEE ALSO ON THIS:

Polityka, Poland: Collective Orgasm' Over Crimea Pushes Putin toward Invasion

Gazeta, Russia: 'Successful' Russia Sanctions Would be West's Worst Nightmare

Gazeta, Russia: MH17: Guilty Rebels 'Worse for Moscow than KAL-007'

Izvestia, Russia: MH17: West's Version of Events Hearsay, Subterfuge, Hysteria

Elsevier, The Netherlands: MH17: Dutch Should Avoid America's Post-911 Reaction

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: West's Sliding Scale of Human Suffering is a Gift to Putin

Elsevier, The Netherlands: As Dutch Mourn Our Dead, Russians Should Mourn their State

de Volkskrant, The Netherlands: MH17: E.U. Must 'Slam its Fists' on the Table

Elsevier, The Netherlands: Securing MH17 Victims: Dutch Have Elite Troops for a Reason!

de Volkskrant, The Netherlands: MH17: Death Knell of Ukraine's Pro-Russian Separatists

Guardian, U.K.: MH17: Dutch Mayor Wants Putin's Daughter Deported

Der Spiegel, Germany: U.S. 'Loses Patience' with Europe: Wants Tough Russia Sanctions

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: Obama's Sanctions on Russia are the 'Only Real Sanctions'

Izvestia, Russia: Abandoning Pro-Russia Separatists Would Be 'Unforgivable'

Izvestia, Russia: For Russia, Iraq Crisis is a 'Lucky Break'

Newsweek Polska, Poland: Has Putin Orchestrated Poland's Eavesdropping Scandal?

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: Poland and Germany Show Kremlin No Wiggle Room

News, Switzerland: All's Disquiet on the Western Front

Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany: U.S. 'Unprepared' for Opposition to TTIP Free Trade Deal

News, Switzerland: Barack Macbeth's 'Murder' of Net Neutrality

Die Welt, Germany: NATO Badly Divided on Deploying Troops in East Europe; Facing Moscow

Ukrayinska Pravda, Ukraine: In Defeating the 'Russian Disease,' Will Ukraine Lose its Soul?

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: Obama's Chance to Make Up for Missteps Toward Poles

Direct Matin, France: Mr. Obama's D-Day Option: Indifference or Interference?

Economist, U.K.: Poland - Obama's First Stop in Europe

Latvijas Avize, Latvia: In Latvia and Europe, Naive Hopes that Russia Will Change Live On

Izvestia, Russia: 'Envy of the Gods': Obama 'Unfit to Lead' a Great Power

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: Why Should Poland Thank Putin? Let Us Count the Ways

Le Figaro, France: For Putin's Russia, Conchita Wurst is a Tool Like No Other

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: New Space Race Will Benefit U.S. and Russian Programs

Vedemosti, Russia: Russia Unmoved By NASA's 'Cancellation' of Space Cooperation

Huanqiu, China: China Requires Capacity to Shoot Down American Satellites

Epoca, Brazil: China on the Moon: Move Over America and Russia

Rodong Sinmun, North Korea: American Space Crime Must be Stopped!

Novaya Gazeta, Russia: NATO 'Never Promised' Not to Expand Eastward

KPRU, RUSSIA: Ukraine Crisis: Russia Cannot Dispense with the Dollar

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: Thank Putin for NATO's 'Second Wind'

Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany: Weakening Russian Influence Requires European Energy Union

Gazeta, Russia: Ukraine: Setting the Table for a Newer World Order

Izvestia, Russia: Dimitry Kiselyov: Russia Takes West's Place as Beacon of Free Expression

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Germany: To Beat Putin, West Needs Armor, Not Empathy

Libero Quotidiano, Italy: Obama 'Turns the Nuclear Cheek' To Vladimir Putin

Gazeta, Russia: Russians Bid Farewell to the West

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: Lech Walesa: Europe 'Cannot Count on the United States'

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: Obama's Lesson: Poland Can't Count on the United States

Huanqiu, China: New Russia: Becoming the 'Empire the World Needs'

Al Wehda, Syria: Hagel Must Be Told: China is Not Russia

Semana, Colombia: America and Russia: Two Empires Now 'Nakedly Imperial'

Al-Madina, Saudi Arabia: Ukraine and Syria: May Allah Make Russia's Pain Severe!

Trouw, Netherlands: Clinton's Hitler-Putin Comment Highlights Weakness of E.U.

Vedomosti, Russia: From Hitler to Putin: Crimea is 'Not the First Time'

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: 'Annexing' Crimea and 'Uniting' Jerusalem

Gazeta, Russia: Annexing Crimea 'Too Costly for Russia to Bear'

Vedomosti, Russia: From Hitler to Putin: Crimea is 'Not the First Time'

Izvestia, Russia: Global Call to Arms Against 'American Exceptionalism'

Moskovskij Komsomolets, Russia: A Grateful Nation Cheers President Putin's Triumph

Izvestia, Russia: Crimea: 'We Will Never Give Up What We've Won'

Handelsblad, Germany: 'Fissures' in Europe: Putin, Propaganda, and Patriotism

Der Spiegel, Germany: Finance Minister Schauble Says Putin Plan Reminiscent of Hitler

Der Spiegel, Germany: The Sympathy Problem - Is Germany a Country of Russia Apologists?

Der Spiegel, Germany: NATO's Putin Conundrum: Berlin Considers Its NATO Options

La Stampa, Italy: Ukraine: Putin Capitalizes on Western Identity Crisis

La Stampa, Italy: Ukraine: Putin Capitalizes on Western Identity Crisis

de Volkskrant, Netherlands: Putin's Letter to Americans a Guilty Pleasure for the World

Huanqiu, China: Letter By Vladimir Putin Exposes 'Exceptional' American Inequality

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: A 'Puppet in Putin's Hands,' Snowden Paved Way to Ukraine Crisis

Diario De Noticias, Portugal: Russia and America: United in Flouting International Law

Carta Maior, Brazil: Venezuela and Ukraine: Upending Washington's Best Laid Plans

Le Quotidien d'Oran, Algeria: Crimea: The Latest Front for French Rambos

Reforma, Mexico: Crimea and Texas: Russia's Version of Manifest Destiny

Al Wehda, Syria: America's 'Destiny' of Invasion and Expansionism

FAZ, Germany: America and Germany: The 'Axis of Pragmatism'

BelTA, Belarus: Lukashenko Warns: Crimea Sets 'Dangerous Precedent'

Al-Madina, Saudi Arabia: Ukraine and Syria: May Allah Make Russia's Pain Severe!

tp24 Rubriche, Italy: America 'Too Young to Understand' Crisis in Crimea

Die Zeit, Germany: The Paler the West, the More Luminous Vladimir Putin

Rzeczpospolita, Poland: Between Russia and the West: Ukraine's Insurmountable Task

Huanqiu, China: Crisis Over Ukraine Could Spell 'Disaster' for China

Asia Times, Hong Kong: Beijing to Kiev to Taipei: Why China Worries About Ukraine

Neatkariga Rita Avize, Latvia: Putin Clears Western Minds of Intelligence, Media 'Delusions'

Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany: Germans Must Now Back Sanctions - Even if they Hurt Us

Diena, Latvia: President Tells Lithuanians: Show Russia No Fear and be 'Ready to Shoot'

de Volkskrant, The Netherlands: Recognize Russia's Legitimate Interests or Ukraine is Doomed

de Volkskrant, The Netherlands: Most Crimeans Don't want Ukraine Split

Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Finding the Win-Win Scenario With Vladimir Putin

Sol, Portugal: Ukraine May Awaken 'Ghosts of the Great War'

de Morgan, Belgium: Putin Knows: No One in West is Willing to Die for Sebastopol

Komsomolskaya Pravda, Russia: Crimea: the Next Puerto Rico?

Russia Today, Russia: VIDEOS: Roundup of Russian Reaction from Russia Today

European Press Agencies: European Reaction to Developments in Ukraine

Moskovskii Komsomolets, Russia: Report: U.S. to Help 'Oust' Black Sea Fleet from Crimea

Novosti, Russia: Looking Toward the West, Ukraine 'Lies' to the East

Yezhednevniy Zhurnal, Russia: Ossified Kremlin Misreads Biden Visit to Georgia, Ukraine

Rceczpospolita, Poland: Banish All 'Magical Thinking' Regarding the Russian Bear

Kommersant, Russia: The Kremlin Offers 'an Ultimatum' to America

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: 'Enormous Error' of Bush's 'Georgian Protege'
Cotidianul, Romania:
Georgia Can 'Kiss NATO Goodbye'
Financial Times Deutschland, Germany: Before Georgia - It is Europe that Needs Mediation
Rue 89, France: East Europe Best Not Depend on 'Obsolete' NATO
Liberation, France: Russian President 'Dictates His Peace' to Hapless Europe
Le Figaro, France: Between America and Russia, the E.U. is On the Front Line
Le Figaro, France: War in the Caucasus: Georgia 'Doesn? Stand a Chance'
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Did Russia 'Win' the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot

 

CLICK HERE FOR POLISH VERSION

blog comments powered by Disqus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted By Worldmeets.US August 21, 2014, 12:59am