No Panic Across Atlantic, But ‘Contentious Issues’ Await Obama and Hollande
(Le Figaro, France)
“When [Socialist]
François Mitterrand was elected in 1981, America was taken completely by
surprise. The press reacted with alarm, asking whether 'we could still even
trust France' ... Thirty years later, the panic that swept America in 1981 no
longer applies. ... But Obama is anxious to raise ‘difficult issues’ that they
will have to tackle together.”
François Hollande, France's first Socialist Party president in decades and only the second in French history, has a lot of minds to convince across the Atlantic.
When [Socialist] François Mitterrand was elected in 1981,
America was taken completely by surprise. The press reacted with alarm, asking whether
“we could still even trust France.” In Washington, where Secretary of State
Alexander Haig had a bet on Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, it too all the influence of
National Security Advisor Richard Allen, and his familiarity with the nuances
of Mitterrand’s past, to convince Ronald Reagan to adopt a moderate stance
vis-à-vis the French head of state, who had just announced the appointment of
four communist ministers.
As Richard Allen recounted to Le Figaro today, a few
weeks later, Reagan could only congratulate himself on taking a moderate stance
when Mitterrand asked to see him in private on the sidelines of the G7 summit
in Montebello. The Frenchman offered to hand America the Farewell Dossier on a platter
- the spectacular coup by the French secret service that led to the dismantling
of a huge Soviet spy ring. “Reagan never developed a privileged, personal
relationship with Mitterrand, but he was likely a more reliable ally than any
of the Gaullist presidents,” Allen says.
Posted by Worldmeets.US
Thirty years later, the panic that swept America in 1981 no
longer applies, despite the arrival of a socialist president. Barrack Obama was
quick to call François Hollande to congratulate him on
Sunday night. He also suggested bilateral talks at the White House before the
G8 on May 19. But Obama is anxious to raise “difficult issues” that they will
have to tackle together. The new French President will not escape contentious
issues.
The Franco-American relationship has entered the inevitable
observation period that follows any change of tenant at the Elysee
Palace. “François Hollande is an unknown. The White
House’s priority is going to be to determined by his intentions and personality,”
commented Richard Fontain, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security. “We don’t
really know what Hollande’s fundamental beliefs are
on key issues like Iran for example, where his predecessor played a leading
role.”
The future of the eurozone
The question bothering Washington most is the future
of the eurozone. The new socialist president’s stated
desire to "renegotiate" the European treaty on budget discipline is of
concern to the entire political class. But the markets, which only fell slightly
yesterday on Wall Street, and the Democratic administration, seem happier to
adopt a wait-and-see attitude than the conservative economists, who are very
concerned at an "isolated Merkel.” Hollande has
little room to maneuver, explain analysts Danielle Pletka
and Gary Schmidt from the American Enterprise Institute.
“If he were to push inflationary policies too hard, the
markets would plummet along with any hope of saving the euro. It is highly
unlikely that Hollande, a good European, would want
to shoulder the blame,” they conclude, betting on “small modifications, not a
re-writing of the agreement” with Merkel [translated quotes].
Another source of tension: Hollande
has promised to withdraw French troops from Afghanistan in December, instead of
waiting until the end of 2013 as planned by Sarkozy -
who had already brought the withdrawal forward by a year. “We don’t weight so
heavily in terms of numbers, but this troubles the Americans because they fear
a stampede toward the exit,” commented a French source yesterday. A compromise
could be found if François Hollande decides to stick
with combat troops [for withdrawal]. That would mean that trainers and support
troops could stay put. Another way of appeasing the Americans could be to
pledge French financial support for Afghanistan after 2014. But Danielle Pletka and Gary Schmidt believe that in future socialist
budgets, the army will be the first to be sacrificed …
It is a trend that will do nothing to help an America
anxious to rebalance financial contributions within the NATO alliance. It [America]
pays 75 percent of NATO’s budget, as compared to 50 percent ten years ago.
